God Save the Three Lions – Why England will (not) be European champion in 2024

In the Homeland of Football: England’s Youth Development and the Quest for the Euro 2024 Title

A few years ago, England recognized that its youth development system was outdated and failing to produce top-quality players. Meanwhile, the Premier League and the second-tier Championship became increasingly wealthy thanks to new TV deals, allowing clubs to dominate the international transfer market without financial concerns. In short, English youth players were too weak to compete with expensive foreign signings. In the 2013/14 season, players eligible to represent England accounted for just 32% of total playing time—a stark contrast to nearly 70% two decades earlier. This realization led to the conclusion that a small revolution was necessary to avoid falling further behind internationally.

In 2012, the Elite Player Performance Plan (EPPP) was introduced and approved by English professional clubs. The EPPP set various training standards, ranging from coaching methods to match formats, covering all levels from grassroots football to academies. Looking at the current level of English players, the plan is clearly bearing fruit. Since England’s only World Cup triumph in 1966 on home soil, the time has come for this great footballing nation to claim another major title. Will Euro 2024 be England’s tournament? Or will they fall short yet again?

Pro: England Will Triumph

Everything is set for success: the most expensive squad in the entire European Championship, players from the world’s top teams, and the strongest league in football. A perfect mix of youth and experience, hunger for silverware, and a passionate fan base desperate for a major victory. Looking at the squad, it’s clear this will be the tournament of the Three Lions.

Defensive leader John Stones has played at the highest level for years and recently proved his versatility in Manchester City’s evolving tactical system. Kyle Walker and Kieran Trippier provide physicality and experience as full-backs, having competed at the top level for years. But England’s true strength lies in midfield. Trent Alexander-Arnold has demonstrated that he is not only one of the best right-backs in the world but also a capable playmaker in midfield. Declan Rice, following his move from West Ham to Arsenal, has developed into one of the best defensive midfielders in the game, delivering outstanding performances.

The attacking trio is equally impressive. Bukayo Saka’s pace and dribbling constantly create danger and decisive moments. Meanwhile, England boasts two of the top favorites for this year’s Ballon d’Or: Phil Foden, who led Manchester City to the Premier League title with 19 goals and 8 assists, accumulating 39 goal contributions across all competitions. Jude Bellingham’s move from Borussia Dortmund to Real Madrid has been nothing short of royal—23 goals and 13 assists speak for themselves. And to top it all off, England’s striker is one of the best goal scorers of recent years: England’s all-time top scorer, the current leading scorer in the Bundesliga and the Champions League, a three-time Premier League Golden Boot winner, and an incredible record of 340 goals in 545 professional games. Who can stop this team?

Contra: The Title Curse Will Last at Least 60 Years

Yes, England has the most expensive squad. Yes, England has top-class individual players. But no, the Three Lions will not win the title. Why? Because they simply aren’t the best team at Euro 2024, and they proved it in the group stage. Scoring just two goals and securing only one win against a struggling Serbian side is far from convincing. Their last pre-tournament match, a 1-0 loss to Iceland, already hinted at the issues within the squad.

Perhaps the team was unsettled by the omissions of Marcus Rashford, Jack Grealish, and longtime vice-captain Harry Maguire. Or maybe it’s down to goalkeeper Jordan Pickford, who is capable of spectacular saves but also concedes soft goals, failing to provide the necessary stability at the back. Most likely, however, the problem lies with manager Gareth Southgate, who has struggled for years to mold England’s undeniable individual quality into a cohesive team. The squad’s attacking potential is stifled by a conservative, pragmatic playing style. While England’s talent may be enough to scrape through some matches with moments of brilliance, this approach won’t be sufficient in the knockout stages.

Southgate’s decision to leave out players like Rashford and Grealish, who have the ability to decide matches on their own, could prove costly. Even with them, the road to the final—or even winning the title—would be extremely challenging. The Three Lions remain shackled, and until they are unleashed, England’s wait for another major trophy may continue beyond 60 years…